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Some thoughts about market timing

After many years of struggling, in the end, I realise that identifying trends is still the most important skill in chart reading. Various indicators are mostly trying to catch small turns in the price directions. Since charts are based on historical data, the information we can get from the charts are mostly lagging. Using charts to catch immediate changes in price direction is quite difficult. However, for long term trading or investing, I think charts are more useful in telling us the future movement in prices. Certainly, for longer term investing, the market fundamental is still the major deciding force. Reading the chart helps us know where we are relative to the overall position. That in turn gives indication of when to buy and sell. Many gurus advised us not to time the market. Certainly, that is fine if we consider 25 years ago when we have time and if we could set aside say $100K or more and we invest based on pure fundamentals, we would probably be sitting on $millions. That...

Income investing in REIT

There is a good article about investing in REITs. There is the link: http://www.propwise.sg/how-to-invest-in-singapore-reits/ What should you take note of when investing in REITs? 1. Composition of REIT assets - Retail Malls, Hotels, Industrial, Residential, Logistic etc. 2. Geographic diversification and currency risk- Political, Natural disasters etc. 3. Growth of Dividend Per Unit (DPU) - How well they manage 4. Spread over 10 year Government Bond yield - Risk vs Yield comparison 5. Gearing -Leverage - ability to face financial crisis This is one way to invest for income. Depending on your risk adversity, you can make your choices.

Always Do Your Own Analysis

I would like to share a great article that I had just read with all investors. Many gurus, seasoned investors always warn new investors to do their own analysis and research. Reading and referencing other people's work is fine, but, one must always know his own position and do complete analysis. As in the case of people who blindly follow Warren Buffett into Goldman Sachs and General Electrics in the 2008 crisis. Taken to Task: The Cult of Warren Buffett By Aaron Task | Daily Ticker – 9 hours ago Bank of America stock jumped over 9% Thursday on news that Warren Buffett is making a $5 billion investment in the bank. But, at $7.65, the stock closed more than a $1 below its high of the session and BofA shares were falling anew Friday morning, trading as low as $7.45 before stabilizing... ....... ....... ....... Moreover, investors who've followed Buffett into investments like Goldman Sachs and GE got burned, assuming they adhered to Buffett's dictum about ...

Is Silver Price Lagging Behind Gold Price?

You probably had been hearing a lot about this. I kept hearing this from seminars and some investment gurus. So, I decided to do a simple research and analysis. Here is what I had come up with: The table below shows the Price Ratio of Gold/Silver and the 5-YR Simple Moving Average. To see better, plot a chart to see how the ratios moves over the years. I'd plotted using annual and its 5 period simple moving average. This chart showed that the average price ratio advanced over the years. However, recent 10 years, there seems to be some fluctuations. In fact, it seems that silver price had advanced more aggressively than gold price resulting in a drop of the price ratio. I don't know what the experts based on. If silver price were to advance more than gold, it will bring the ratio even lower near to the ratio 20 years ago. However, if you based on recent 10 years, silver price has to retreat or gold price has to advance in order to go back to the average. Even though the current ...

Trading Plan For FY2010

Here is my plan for Trading in 2010: Q1 2010 Research Work: Jan-2010: Identify Counters that can be used for short-mid term trading using RSMA method. Doing Back Testing to list out counters that works for last 3-5 years. Identify "new counters" that potentially can use RSMA short term trading method. Live Trading: Using the results obtained and testing the trading using Money Management Method. Trading sizing: Risk per trade: Total Risk: Trading Log: Standard Log To be Kept with Excel Spreadsheet.

How to do technical analysis for stocks?

I started investing in stock market about 20 years ago. Initially subscribing to IPOs. I had not have luck with IPOs. All of them ended with money losing deal, even though I held on to them for a few years. So, I concluded that the IPOs in Singapore market is over priced. Then I started to read analyst reports on stocks and invest in companies (typically blue chips). Not much profit but good dividends during the good years. Then, came the financial crises. I went on to buy blue chip companies during crises and I held them over the years and sold of a about 120% gain over 5 years on average. Due to some distraction, I stayed away from the market during this crisis and missed the opportunity to buy during the lows. Recently (few months ago), I had been doing some stock trading and currency trading using technical analysis method for more than a year. So far, I had tried many different technical analysis using different indicators (Moving averages, MACD, RMO, Fibonacci, Stochastics, RSI e...

Trading Strategy and Rules

Trading Rules Using Combinations of RSMA, Stochastics, RMO, MACD Mid Term Trend Following Entry Strategy 1 RSMA Buy Signal - enter on next day or day after (latest), skip if missed 2 Stochastic at Oversold and turning up crossing 25 3 MACD has gone down into negative territory 4 If N (Turtle True Range) exits 10% of closing price, do not Entry Exit Strategy 1 Stop Loss at 1.5~2.5 ATR or N (Turtle True Range) below entry and less than 10% 2 First Stop Loss point stay for at least 4 weeks before adjusting 3 Adjust Stop Loss point upon next RSMA Buy Signal (if trade is correct) Trade Sizing 1 Maximum Risk per Trade = $900 2 Maximum Total Risk = $9,000