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Showing posts from 2011

More about Market Timing

There has been talks about end year rally during the earlier parts of this year. Particularly in February to March period when the market was suffering from 'temporary' set back. During that time, even though the European Debt crisis were looming, the Asian economy was still booming. However, as the time passes, the European Debt crisis becomes more apparent. Countries were finding it more and more difficult to cover up. More facts emerge and picture became clearer. The earlier investor pull back and market began the down trend again. In such time, we will invariably turn to tools that we think will help us to foresee such events. This is where macro economic theory comes in. However, for traders who are not well read on such topics, they want to use some thing faster and easier. Then, Technical Analysis comes into play. Using technology, TA can be very fast and handy. Here is a classic example of using TA: http://www.etfguide.com/research/705/8/The-Chart-That-Trumps-Anal

Some thoughts about market timing

After many years of struggling, in the end, I realise that identifying trends is still the most important skill in chart reading. Various indicators are mostly trying to catch small turns in the price directions. Since charts are based on historical data, the information we can get from the charts are mostly lagging. Using charts to catch immediate changes in price direction is quite difficult. However, for long term trading or investing, I think charts are more useful in telling us the future movement in prices. Certainly, for longer term investing, the market fundamental is still the major deciding force. Reading the chart helps us know where we are relative to the overall position. That in turn gives indication of when to buy and sell. Many gurus advised us not to time the market. Certainly, that is fine if we consider 25 years ago when we have time and if we could set aside say $100K or more and we invest based on pure fundamentals, we would probably be sitting on $millions. That

Income investing in REIT

There is a good article about investing in REITs. There is the link: http://www.propwise.sg/how-to-invest-in-singapore-reits/ What should you take note of when investing in REITs? 1. Composition of REIT assets - Retail Malls, Hotels, Industrial, Residential, Logistic etc. 2. Geographic diversification and currency risk- Political, Natural disasters etc. 3. Growth of Dividend Per Unit (DPU) - How well they manage 4. Spread over 10 year Government Bond yield - Risk vs Yield comparison 5. Gearing -Leverage - ability to face financial crisis This is one way to invest for income. Depending on your risk adversity, you can make your choices.

Always Do Your Own Analysis

I would like to share a great article that I had just read with all investors. Many gurus, seasoned investors always warn new investors to do their own analysis and research. Reading and referencing other people's work is fine, but, one must always know his own position and do complete analysis. As in the case of people who blindly follow Warren Buffett into Goldman Sachs and General Electrics in the 2008 crisis. Taken to Task: The Cult of Warren Buffett By Aaron Task | Daily Ticker – 9 hours ago Bank of America stock jumped over 9% Thursday on news that Warren Buffett is making a $5 billion investment in the bank. But, at $7.65, the stock closed more than a $1 below its high of the session and BofA shares were falling anew Friday morning, trading as low as $7.45 before stabilizing... ....... ....... ....... Moreover, investors who've followed Buffett into investments like Goldman Sachs and GE got burned, assuming they adhered to Buffett's dictum about