Think Like a Turtle Trader

Dos and Don’ts for Thinking Like a Turtle

1. Trade in the present: Do not dwell on the past or try to predict the future.The former is counterproductive, and the latter is impossible.
2. Think in terms of probabilities, not prediction: Instead of trying to be right by predicting the market, focus on methods in which the probabilities are in your favor for a successful outcome over
the long run.
3. Take responsibility for your own trades: Don’t blame your mistakes and failures on others, the markets, your broker, and so forth.Take responsibility for your mistakes and learn
from them.

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More about Market Timing

There has been talks about end year rally during the earlier parts of this year. Particularly in February to March period when the market was suffering from 'temporary' set back. During that time, even though the European Debt crisis were looming, the Asian economy was still booming. However, as the time passes, the European Debt crisis becomes more apparent. Countries were finding it more and more difficult to cover up. More facts emerge and picture became clearer. The earlier investor pull back and market began the down trend again. In such time, we will invariably turn to tools that we think will help us to foresee such events. This is where macro economic theory comes in. However, for traders who are not well read on such topics, they want to use some thing faster and easier. Then, Technical Analysis comes into play. Using technology, TA can be very fast and handy. Here is a classic example of using TA: http://www.etfguide.com/research/705/8/The-Chart-That-Trumps-Anal...

Is Silver Price Lagging Behind Gold Price?

You probably had been hearing a lot about this. I kept hearing this from seminars and some investment gurus. So, I decided to do a simple research and analysis. Here is what I had come up with: The table below shows the Price Ratio of Gold/Silver and the 5-YR Simple Moving Average. To see better, plot a chart to see how the ratios moves over the years. I'd plotted using annual and its 5 period simple moving average. This chart showed that the average price ratio advanced over the years. However, recent 10 years, there seems to be some fluctuations. In fact, it seems that silver price had advanced more aggressively than gold price resulting in a drop of the price ratio. I don't know what the experts based on. If silver price were to advance more than gold, it will bring the ratio even lower near to the ratio 20 years ago. However, if you based on recent 10 years, silver price has to retreat or gold price has to advance in order to go back to the average. Even though the current ...

How to do technical analysis for stocks?

I started investing in stock market about 20 years ago. Initially subscribing to IPOs. I had not have luck with IPOs. All of them ended with money losing deal, even though I held on to them for a few years. So, I concluded that the IPOs in Singapore market is over priced. Then I started to read analyst reports on stocks and invest in companies (typically blue chips). Not much profit but good dividends during the good years. Then, came the financial crises. I went on to buy blue chip companies during crises and I held them over the years and sold of a about 120% gain over 5 years on average. Due to some distraction, I stayed away from the market during this crisis and missed the opportunity to buy during the lows. Recently (few months ago), I had been doing some stock trading and currency trading using technical analysis method for more than a year. So far, I had tried many different technical analysis using different indicators (Moving averages, MACD, RMO, Fibonacci, Stochastics, RSI e...

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