Risk Measurement (N)
The trade size is determined by measuring the volatility using the Average True Range (N). Where N is the largest absolute value among the following:
Setting Stops
There are 2 ways in which we can set stops. One is to use 2N as guide to set stops. That means, for a stock where price is $8 and if N = $0.50, then, the stop will be $1.00 below the entry point. This is quite a large percentage of the entry price which will potentially resulting in large draw down. That may cause some sleeps. The second method is to use arbitrary support level and place 2 bits below the support. This method may result in too small stop and frequent stop out or the support may be too low that it may cause too much risk.
I have come up with another method where you use support level plus 2 bits and check that the price is between 1N to 2N. This will ensure a more moderated stop out.
Trade Sizing
The Risk Management or Money Management Rules is based on the following guidelines:
Note that these are rule-of-thumb guides and you can also set the Risk to 1% of capital. With that you can spread your risk to more counters. I found that 1% is quite sufficient for stock trading now. Due to the volatile nature, it may not be too wise to take higher risk. However, one must be aware that you can't monitor too many counters simultaneously. You may not be able to unwind quickly when situation arises.
Calculation of Trade Size
Assuming you have a counter priced at $10. The N is now $0.8. Support is at $8.8. You set you stop at $8.4. The risk per trade is $1.6. If the lot size is 1000, the each trade will carry a risk of $1,600. If you capital is $100,000 then 2% will be $2,000. Using $2000 / $1600 give 1.25, round down to 1 lot. You can only trade one lot each time. What about setting the stop within less than 1N? Since the volatility is such, if you set within 1N, you are likely to be stop out prematurely very often. So much so that you success rate will be very low.
Exit Trade
Typically there are 2 reasons for exiting at trade.
Other than that, there should not be any reason for exiting a trade. Stop positions should be adjusted if the trend is in favour of our trade. If the trend go against our trade, never adjust the stop to allow more losses.
Do not be in a rush to exit trade when seeing sell signal. Read the charts, check the moving averages. If the 7-SMA and 20-SMA are still moving up, there is no reason to exit. The sell signal could be a false alarm. It is also important to check the RMO for the major trend. If major trend is still showing growth, then, there is no reason to exit. Wait for RMO signal. However, if the trade is in the money and the trend is not certainly clear, it will be safer to take to small profit out and wait for clearer direction to emerge. If the trade has gone very far in the money, it is something worthwhile to bet of the earned money (be prepared to give back some gains) to adjust the stop to allow higher volatility. This strategy will help to give large gains and prevent premature stop out.
The trade size is determined by measuring the volatility using the Average True Range (N). Where N is the largest absolute value among the following:
- The distance from today’s high to today’s low
- The distance from yesterday’s close to today’s high
- The distance from yesterday’s close to today’s low
Setting Stops
There are 2 ways in which we can set stops. One is to use 2N as guide to set stops. That means, for a stock where price is $8 and if N = $0.50, then, the stop will be $1.00 below the entry point. This is quite a large percentage of the entry price which will potentially resulting in large draw down. That may cause some sleeps. The second method is to use arbitrary support level and place 2 bits below the support. This method may result in too small stop and frequent stop out or the support may be too low that it may cause too much risk.
I have come up with another method where you use support level plus 2 bits and check that the price is between 1N to 2N. This will ensure a more moderated stop out.
Trade Sizing
The Risk Management or Money Management Rules is based on the following guidelines:
- The Risk of each Unit of trade must not exit 2% of total capital
- There should not be more than 5 trades per market (product)
- At anytime, you should not risk more than 50% of capital (assume you are on margin)
Note that these are rule-of-thumb guides and you can also set the Risk to 1% of capital. With that you can spread your risk to more counters. I found that 1% is quite sufficient for stock trading now. Due to the volatile nature, it may not be too wise to take higher risk. However, one must be aware that you can't monitor too many counters simultaneously. You may not be able to unwind quickly when situation arises.
Calculation of Trade Size
Assuming you have a counter priced at $10. The N is now $0.8. Support is at $8.8. You set you stop at $8.4. The risk per trade is $1.6. If the lot size is 1000, the each trade will carry a risk of $1,600. If you capital is $100,000 then 2% will be $2,000. Using $2000 / $1600 give 1.25, round down to 1 lot. You can only trade one lot each time. What about setting the stop within less than 1N? Since the volatility is such, if you set within 1N, you are likely to be stop out prematurely very often. So much so that you success rate will be very low.
Exit Trade
Typically there are 2 reasons for exiting at trade.
- Stop out
- Target is reached
- Sell signal
Other than that, there should not be any reason for exiting a trade. Stop positions should be adjusted if the trend is in favour of our trade. If the trend go against our trade, never adjust the stop to allow more losses.
Do not be in a rush to exit trade when seeing sell signal. Read the charts, check the moving averages. If the 7-SMA and 20-SMA are still moving up, there is no reason to exit. The sell signal could be a false alarm. It is also important to check the RMO for the major trend. If major trend is still showing growth, then, there is no reason to exit. Wait for RMO signal. However, if the trade is in the money and the trend is not certainly clear, it will be safer to take to small profit out and wait for clearer direction to emerge. If the trade has gone very far in the money, it is something worthwhile to bet of the earned money (be prepared to give back some gains) to adjust the stop to allow higher volatility. This strategy will help to give large gains and prevent premature stop out.
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